Israel - China Institute

Experts say Iran has clear path to nuclear weapons

Last week the Harvard Kennedy School held a simulation game of the Iranian nuclear crisis, and Israel should be very concerned about its course and its outcome.

The game made it clear: Iran will not stop on its path to producing nuclear weapons. The United States will not embark on a military action and will find it difficult to enlist support at the United Nations for imposing more severe sanctions, while relations between Israel and the United States will deteriorate.

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rof. Graham Allison, a leading analyst of American security policy for decades, conducted the game, whose participants were representatives from countries and organizations likely to be affected by the real outcome.

Israel was represented by Dore Gold, former ambassador to the United Nations, and Dr. Shai Feldman, currently at Brandeis University, and by a former brigadier general and a nuclear physicist. Their decisions were made by consensus. The U.S. team, headed by Nicholas Burns, who was an assistant to former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice during the administration of George W. Bush and was responsible for the "Iranian portfolio," included Admiral William Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command from 2007-2008.

Iran was represented by Prof. Gary Sick of Columbia University, who was a member of the U.S. National Security Council under Jimmy Carter.

Also participating were American and European academics (some of them former government officials), representing Russia, China, U.K., France and Germany and the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar). Also present as observers - the game lasted an entire day - were journalists David Ignatius of the Washington Post and David Singer of The New York Times, who "played" the media. All the participants promised to maintain secrecy about the game and not to reveal the identity of the participants, but details have leaked in the United States and now here as well.

Dynamic revealed

The rules of the game permitted the participants to conduct bilateral or multilateral discussions and contacts, to leak information to the media, to make public declarations and to provide one another with intelligence information. True, it was only an exercise, but it tried to simulate reality. It's possible the decision-making process of the participants was biased because of their worldview, because of partial information or the absence of genuine responsibility for the outcome. But the game revealed a dynamic that is reminiscent of the reality familiar to anyone who keeps tabs on the nuclear crisis with Iran and reflects that reality. Burns in the role of President Barack Obama tried everything possible to prevent a military confrontation fearing this would lead to a serious retaliation from Iran and effect the hundreds of thousands of U.S. soldiers deployed in Iraq, in the Gulf and in Afghanistan.

Gold, in the role of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, tried to enlist all the participants in imposing serious economic sanctions on Iran, designed to hit its "soft underbelly" - its oil and gas industries. Saudi Arabia and the other members of the GCC, which worry about the possibility of Iran having nuclear weapons, joined in the effort. But when Israel tried to reach clandestine understandings with them, they refused (in reality, there is a secret cooperation). The United States operated exclusively through the UN Security Council in reaching a decision on sanctions, but encountered evasion by China and Russia. In the final analysis the U.S. failed to impose the sanctions on Iran, and it turned out that Russia and China even maneuvered behind its back. Their companies made deals with Iran to provide what it requires instead of Western companies.

New tactic

At this point the U.S. administration switched to a new tactic, one designed to extort a promise from Israel that under no condition would it attack Iran without U.S. permission. Gold-Netanyahu refused, and a very unpleasant exchange of words developed between him and Burns-Obama. "Our most serious problem is how to restrain Israel," Burns told Ignatius after the game. In a desperate attempt the Americans tried to tempt Israel and offered it a defensive treaty and a nuclear umbrella if it gave up the military option. Israel rejected the offer, with Gold insisting on the principle that Israel has a right to self-defense and refusing to subordinate the little freedom of action Israel still has to American interests.

"The game," summed up Gold, who conveyed its findings to the relevant authorities in Israel (as the leaders of the game presumably did to their colleagues in the Obama administration) "made it clear to me that the U.S. is going from a policy designed to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons to an approach that accepts the possibility that it will have nuclear weapons and to deter it from using them by means of containment. Israel continues to believe that Iran must be prevented from arming itself with nuclear weapons."

Conclusions: The U.S. will not attack Iran. Russia and China will not agree to imposing serious sanctions. The U.S. will pressure Israel to prevent it from attacking Iran, and so a serious crisis is liable to develop between the two countries. Under these circumstances and in view of operational capability, Israel does not in effect have a real option of attacking Iran. If it so desires, Iran can produce nuclear weapons.

Bar Gil will stay

The degree to which the Defense Ministry continues to show contempt for public opinion and to make decisions based on individuals rather than on practical considerations is evident in the latest episode concerning Victor Bar Gil, its deputy director general. His boss, Pinhas Buchris, wanted to transfer him and, as published in Haaretz, cushioned his exit with a tailored-made post - head of the ministry delegation in Thailand. Bar Gil prepared and even made three preliminary tours to Bangkok and neighboring Cambodia and Vietnam. But, it turns out, Buchris is retiring. Bar Gil says he is not interested in going to Thailand and wants to remain deputy director general. He now has the hutzpah to advise his ministry to close the Bangkok office, arguing that it is unneeded.